How Will the Five State Assembly Elections Affect the BJP and Congress in the Lok Sabha Elections?

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State assembly election(Credit- Getty image)

Every political event in the vibrant arena of Indian politics has an impact on the bigger scene. The main test for political parties particularly the . BJP and the Indian National Congress will be the assembly elections in five states. Even though the Lok Sabha elections are on a very different playing field, it might be tempting to predict how these local elections will affect the larger national picture.

The 2023 decision and its impact

The results of the 2023 local elections could affect the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. the role of opposition leadership may change as result of this decision and the BJP may lose some of its current seats.

whatever the outcome public opinion of the BJP in the lead up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would undoubtedly be significantly impacted by assembly elections in these five states.

BJP’s Goal of Two Victories

The BJP is under tremendous pressure to win at least two states after suffering defeats in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. It’s not only about demonstrating Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ongoing popularity this is also about demonstrating the party’s ability to get through serious anti incumbency problems.

generally the opposition parties’ unified front a victory in the state elections would confirm the BJP’s position as the leader for a third up straight term in 2024. The opposition has been announcing that the governing party will not be able to win a third term in Delhi, encouraged by the partnership of 26 anti BJP parties. This narrative may be confirmed by defeats in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh or a failure to retake Rajasthan.

Opportunities for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress

The worst-case scenario for the BJP is that the Gandhis’ leadership would return if the Congress won in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Telangana by surprise. Rahul Gandhi may emerge as the “real” leader among the opposition leaders capable of opposing Modi as a result of this. It’s possible that other candidates for the position of prime minister will have to wait.

Additionally, this would give the Congress additional advantages when negotiating seat-sharing agreements with other partners for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. States like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal will also be at stake; Mamata Banerjee may not be pleased with the Congress’s comeback in these states.

After the Congress put up a spirited display in Gujarat in 2017 Rahul Gandhi assumed control of the party. his performance in the 2018 multi state elections was praised and if the party is successful in these four states as well there will likely be an increase in calls for Rahul to take over as party leader and PM candidate.

Elections for the 2024 Lok Sabha as a result

even if  BJP is able to maintain its position as the government at the center several political analysts have already predicted that it may lose seats in the upcoming election. these forecasts will be supported by the results of these assembly elections.

Even if there are distinctions between parliamentary and assembly elections, there will be a great temptation to draw more significant impacts from the assembly elections. Various projections have been made by the BJP’s own strategists, ranging from a simple majority of 272 seats to obtaining 240–250 seats compared to the 303 seats it gained in 2019.

The opposition leaders needs to join together behind the Congress and acknowledge Rahul Gandhi’s key role in fighting Modi’s ten-year reign.

The Sensible Image

currently the BJP is in charge of Madhya Pradesh while the Congress is in charge of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. however Jyotiraditya Scindia’s uprising helped the BJP overthrow the Kamal Nath administration in 2020.

In Rajasthan’s 2018 assembly election the Congress won 100 seats against the BJP’s 73 thanks to a somewhat higher vote share. The Congress won 68 of the 90 seats in chhattisgarh mainly to voter resentment of the three term chief minister Raman Singh.

A lack of strong leadership within the BJP ranks and the excellent political management of the states current Congress chief minister Bhupesh Baghel  are the main reasons the BJP has struggled in Chhattisgarh. the vote proportion of the BJP has continuously decreased from 41% in 2013 to 32% in 2018.

despite having a minor vote share deficit the Congress won five more seats in Madhya Pradesh than BJP in 2018. the Congress has made tremendous strides as the main opposition in Telangana, despite the Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s (BRS) confidence that K Chandrashekar Rao will win a third term especially following its amazing victory in closest Karnataka.

Finally, the outcomes of next legislative elections in five states might determine how the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are conducted. the BJP wants to strengthen its dominance while Rahul Gandhi led Congress hopes to make comeback. since the result might have major effects for Indian politics it will be widely observed.

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